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Share the trade as you wrote it in the journal. Edit the text before posting; nothing goes out until you press the button.
Type two coins. Coyote shows what the first would be worth at the second one's size.
The expected multiple weighs the bull case by your probability and assumes the coin halves if you are wrong. You can change all of it on the board.
Your board
Put the coins you hold, or want to hold, on one board. For each one set a target, how likely it is, and what you lose if you are wrong. Coyote ranks them by expected multiple, so you see which bets earn their place in your portfolio and which only look big.
Optional. Type how many tokens you own to see what they are worth today and, given your targets, what they are worth on average.
| Token | Tokens held | Price | Value | Share | Expected value | Exp. multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 100% |
Save the board as it is now and load it back later. Handy for keeping a few scenarios, or one snapshot a month to see how your views change.
You can build the board without an account. To save it as a portfolio and get it back on any device, .
| Portfolio | Saved | Saved value | Value now | Change | Expected value | Exp. multiple | Best coin |
|---|
Every coin on your board, best first. Right of the 1x line a bet gains on average, left of it it loses, even if the upside looks big.
| Coin | Checks | Median target | Avg. probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||
How big your coins are next to each other and to the majors, on a log scale. Blue tick: your target. Amber tick: all-time high.
One card per coin. Set the target market cap (a number, or another coin's size), the probability and the downside. The expected multiple updates as you type.
"What if X had the market cap of Y" answers a simple question: if coin X were worth, in total, what coin Y is worth today, what would one X cost? The formula is price of X × (market cap of Y ÷ market cap of X). Because market cap is price × circulating supply, the answer depends on how many tokens exist, which is why two coins at the same price can have very different multiples.
A big multiple means nothing without a probability. Coyote asks how likely you think the target is and computes p × (target ÷ current market cap) + (1 − p) × downside. Above 1x the bet gains on average; below 1x it loses on average, however large the upside looks. The break-even probability is the point where the two sides balance.
Chosen as a target, it means "back to the top". Coyote computes it as the all-time-high price × today's circulating supply, so for coins that unlocked many tokens since their peak it is higher than the market cap recorded that day.
Log each leveraged trade with its thesis before entering and its result after closing. The analysis reads your closed trades and shows win rate, payoff, liquidations, and how you do by leverage, setup and state of mind. It is a thinking tool, not financial advice.
What If is free and needs no sign-up. The journal and saved portfolios need an account, so they follow you across devices.
Break-even probability is the bull-case probability below which the bet loses value on average, given your target and downside. If your probability sits close to it, a small estimation error flips the verdict. Market cap is circulating supply × price; FDV counts all tokens that will ever exist, so a big gap between the two means future unlocks. This is a thinking tool, not financial advice.
Your trading journal. Log each position with its thesis; when you close it, add the exit and write the result: what happened and what you learned. The analysis at the bottom updates with every closed trade and points out patterns in your results.
The journal is personal: your trades, your thesis and your results are kept with your account so they follow you across devices.
Write the trade when you open it, with the thesis. Leave the exit empty. When you close it, come back, add the exit and write the result.
All your trades, newest first. Open ones follow the current price. "Close / edit" adds the exit.
| Opened | Coin | Side | Lev. | Entry | Exit / now | Result | USD | R | Setup |
|---|
What your closed trades say about how you trade: win rate, payoff, and where the money goes by leverage, setup and state of mind. Patterns need a handful of trades to mean something.
Claude reads your closed trades, including your thesis and result notes, and writes what it sees: what works, what costs you money and a few rules to try. It never tells you what to buy or sell.
Results assume a simple position: result = margin × leverage × price move. The liquidation price shown is approximate (it ignores the exchange's maintenance margin). R is the result divided by what you would have lost at your stop. This is a journal and thinking tool, not financial advice.
Short, practical material on trading well: sizing, risk, psychology and how to read your own results.
What you add here is what everyone sees in Learn. Only admins see this page.
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Connect your X account to post a thesis or a result straight from the journal. Without a connection, "Post on X" opens X with the text ready to publish.
Everything in Coyote is free while it is in beta: What If, the journal, Learn and the Crowd panel.
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